AI & chip supply chains, tracked with customs data

DRAM, HBM and NAND made in Hiroshima and Taiwan, assembled in Malaysia. US imports of Taiwanese memory track revenue most directly (grade A).

NAND from the Kioxia JV fabs in Japan, assembled in Malaysia and China. Japan's nationwide memory exports match revenue growth best. Multi-year contracts from 2026 can delay how fast spot prices reach reported revenue.

World's largest memory maker. We track the semiconductor (DS) division only. Memory made at Pyeongtaek, Hwaseong and Giheung is over half of Korea's memory exports.

No. 1 in HBM, No. 2 in DRAM. Company-wide revenue. Icheon (DRAM, HBM) and Cheongju (NAND, HBM packaging) exports make up most of the rest of Korea's memory exports; China fabs are not in Korean data.

InP lasers (San Jose, Japan) plus transceivers built by Fabrinet in Thailand.

Optical module contract manufacturer in Thailand — the core of the Thai transceiver flow (peer comparison).

Optical transceivers, lasers and materials made in Malaysia, China and Vietnam.

AI servers drive growth. Built in Mexico, Malaysia and China and shipped into the US; parts inventory leads shipments.

Servers, networking (Juniper) and storage. Network gear shipped from Mexico and Malaysia is the key flow.

All-flash storage, contract-built in Guadalajara and shipped via Laredo. Watch units and unit prices separately.

AI server racks assembled mainly in San Jose, so trade data sees the parts going in. Risk of revenue slipping on rack integration delays.

AI back-end Ethernet switches, contract-built in Thailand, Mexico and Malaysia and shipped into the US.

Custom AI ASICs and optical DSPs made at TSMC and packaged in Asia — not directly visible in US imports.

Monopoly in EUV lithography. Dutch litho exports show shipments, but service revenue and EUV acceptance timing blur the link; exports to Korea and the US track revenue best.

Copper-clad laminate (CCL) for AI accelerator boards. CCL exports from Jeungpyeong county track the electronics division's quarterly revenue (correlation 0.97).

MLCCs. MLCC exports are filed under Suwon (HQ), not the Busan plant. Japan's MLCC exports track the cycle better.

Solid-oxide fuel cells for on-site data center power, built in Delaware and California. Power-module exports from Delaware go mostly to its Korean partner; US sales are not in trade data.

UPS, power distribution and liquid cooling built in Mexico, China and India and shipped into the US. Lead times and capacity drive results.

HVAC and data center cooling (BasX), mostly made in the US, so trade data only catches some exports.

Battery storage systems, contract-built in Vietnam with Chinese cells. Revenue is lumpy around project deliveries.

Ultra-high-voltage transformers for US grid and data center demand. Korean transformer exports explain revenue only partly (US plant, domestic sales).

Transformers and breakers plus construction. Korean large transformer exports move with revenue (grade B).

Switchboards, breakers and automation. Export data does not explain revenue well (domestic sales, subsidiaries).

Wire, cable and transformers. Korean cable exports move with revenue (grade B).

Chip parts (cleaning, coating, ceramic heaters) plus heat recovery steam generators for gas power — a lagging play on data center power build-outs.

Bitcoin miner turning into a GPU cloud (Microsoft, NVIDIA and other contracts). No company-specific trade flow — tracked through AI server imports as an industry proxy.

Full-stack GPU cloud with long-term hyperscaler contracts (Microsoft, Meta) and shorter AI-lab deals at higher prices per MW. Publishes its own spot GPU prices.

GPU cloud with direct OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta contracts; Microsoft was about two-thirds of 2025 revenue. Heavy secured borrowing.

Building OCI GPU data centers on a huge backlog, funded with bonds and leases — revenue depends on build speed, credit on borrowing pace.

Ad revenue funds AI data centers, partly through off-balance-sheet financing. Capex is a leading signal for AI infrastructure demand.

EVs and energy storage. Quarterly delivery numbers, out two days after quarter end, narrow revenue three weeks before earnings.

Platform security. Software has no trade flow, so we use disclosed ransomware victims as an industry proxy (weak link, grade C).

Endpoint and cloud security (Falcon). Ransomware counts have led revenue growth by about two quarters, but not in the last two years.

Backup-based data security. Listed in 2024, so the history is short.

AI-based endpoint and cloud security. Ransomware counts used as an industry proxy.

Zero-trust cloud security. Ransomware counts used as an industry proxy.

Firewalls and SASE. Hardware refresh cycles matter more than attack counts.

Identity and access management. Ransomware counts used as an industry proxy.

CDN, DDoS protection and zero trust. Security is only part of revenue.

AI drug discovery. No meaningful trade proxy — driven by clinical and partnership news.

ARIKAYCE and brensocatib. Drug HS codes are too broad for a useful trade proxy.

Single-cell and spatial genomics instruments made in California; trade data only catches exports (mainly to China).