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SMCI Super Micro Computer
Servers & networking · NASDAQ · 한국어 페이지
AI server racks assembled mainly in San Jose, so trade data sees the parts going in. Risk of revenue slipping on rack integration delays.
Current-quarter revenue estimate
Quarter ending Sep 2026 · reports Nov 3, 2026
Our estimate
$15.0B
$11.9B–$18.1B
vs a year ago
+199%
vs consensus
−7.7%
Low confidence · within ±5% in 4 of 9 backtested quarters, average error 9.2%. Model: company guidance adjusted by its historical beat rate.
Industry flow
California imports of computer parts (GPU boards) · to Aug 2026
+105%last 3 months vs a year earlier
No company-specific flow — this is an industry-wide flow for context.
Mapped data flows
How each flow moves with quarterly revenue (year-over-year correlation, flow leading by 0–2 quarters).
| Flow | Stage | Revenue link | Correlation | Data to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
California imports of computer parts (GPU boards) US Census Bureau | Inputs | B Linked | 0.64 | Aug 2026 |
US imports of computer systems (incl. AI racks) US Census Bureau | End demand | B Linked | 0.51 · leads 1Q | Aug 2026 |
US imports of Taiwanese servers US Census Bureau | Inputs | C Industry context | 0.36 | Aug 2026 |
US imports of servers + computer systems US Census Bureau | End demand | D Weak link | 0.28 | Aug 2026 |
US imports of computer parts (incl. GPU boards) US Census Bureau | Inputs | D Weak link | 0.07 | Aug 2026 |
A ≥0.7 direct link · B ≥0.5 linked · C ≥0.3 industry context · D weak. Fewer than 8 comparable quarters caps the grade at C.