← Coverage
ASML ASML Holding
Semiconductors · NASDAQ · 한국어 페이지
Monopoly in EUV lithography. Dutch litho exports show shipments, but service revenue and EUV acceptance timing blur the link; exports to Korea and the US track revenue best.
Current-quarter revenue estimate
Quarter ending Dec 2026 · reports Jan 28, 2027
Our estimate
€15.1B
€14.5B–€15.6B
vs a year ago
+55%
vs consensus
+1.6%
High confidence · within ±5% in 12 of 12 backtested quarters, average error 2.1%. Model: company guidance adjusted by its historical beat rate.
Key supply-chain flow
Netherlands lithography tool exports (all) · to Jul 2026
+4.6%last 3 months vs a year earlier
Mapped data flows
How each flow moves with quarterly revenue (year-over-year correlation, flow leading by 0–2 quarters).
| Flow | Stage | Revenue link | Correlation | Data to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Netherlands → US lithography tool exports Eurostat Comext | Company shipments | B Linked | 0.68 · leads 1Q | Aug 2026 |
Memory big-3 capex (Samsung · SK hynix · Micron) company capex disclosures | Customer capex | C Industry context | 0.44 · leads 1Q | Jun 2026 |
Netherlands → Taiwan lithography tool exports Eurostat Comext | Company shipments | C Industry context | 0.34 | Aug 2026 |
Netherlands → Korea lithography tool exports Eurostat Comext | Company shipments | C Industry context | 0.30 | Aug 2026 |
Netherlands lithography tool exports (all) Eurostat Comext | Production shipments | D Weak link | 0.14 | Jul 2026 |
Netherlands → China lithography tool exports Eurostat Comext | Company shipments | D Weak link | -0.37 | Aug 2026 |
A ≥0.7 direct link · B ≥0.5 linked · C ≥0.3 industry context · D weak. Fewer than 8 comparable quarters caps the grade at C.
Scorecard
Our last estimate before each report vs actual revenue.
| Quarter | Our estimate | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | €11.8B | €11.7B | +1.3% |