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TSLA Tesla
EV & energy · NASDAQ · 한국어 페이지
EVs and energy storage. Quarterly delivery numbers, out two days after quarter end, narrow revenue three weeks before earnings.
Current-quarter revenue estimate
Quarter ending Dec 2026 · reports Jan 2, 2027
Our estimate
$24.9B
$20.0B–$29.7B
vs a year ago
−0.2%
vs consensus
−15%
Trend only · within ±5% in 2 of 12 backtested quarters, average error 11.8%. Model: company guidance adjusted by its historical beat rate.
Key supply-chain flow
Tesla vehicle deliveries (quarterly ÷ 3) · to Sep 2026
−2.1%last 3 months vs a year earlier
Mapped data flows
How each flow moves with quarterly revenue (year-over-year correlation, flow leading by 0–2 quarters).
| Flow | Stage | Revenue link | Correlation | Data to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tesla vehicle deliveries (quarterly ÷ 3) Tesla production & deliveries reports | Company shipments | A Direct link | 0.88 | Sep 2026 |
California imports of Chinese Li-ion batteries US Census Bureau | Inputs | B Linked | 0.66 | Aug 2026 |
Texas imports of Japanese Li-ion batteries US Census Bureau | Inputs | B Linked | 0.53 | Aug 2026 |
Tesla energy storage deployed, GWh (quarterly ÷ 3) Tesla production & deliveries reports | Company shipments | D Weak link | 0.17 | Sep 2026 |
A ≥0.7 direct link · B ≥0.5 linked · C ≥0.3 industry context · D weak. Fewer than 8 comparable quarters caps the grade at C.
Scorecard
Our last estimate before each report vs actual revenue.
| Quarter | Our estimate | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $29.4B | $28.0B | +4.8% |